Russian Oil Exports Plummet in November Amid US Sanctions Concerns: IEA

Economic Times
Economic Times
46m ago • 1 views
Russian oil exports dropped considerably in November due to US sanctions fears, causing revenue declines and lower global oil supply, while demand is forecasted to grow in 2025 and 2026.
Russian Oil Exports Plummet in November Amid US Sanctions Concerns: IEA
A What happened
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian oil exports decreased by about 420,000 barrels per day in November as buyers grew wary of tighter US sanctions. This led to a significant fall in Urals crude prices by $8.2 per barrel to $43.52, dragging Moscow’s oil revenue down to $11 billion, the lowest since the Ukraine conflict began in early 2022. The US has imposed added tariffs on countries like India that continue to import Russian oil. Globally, oil supply declined by 610,000 barrels per day, largely because of OPEC+ production cuts, including disruptions in Russia and Venezuela. Conversely, Iran's oil loadings have stayed strong. Non-OPEC+ producers such as the US and Brazil have also contributed to the supply decline. Despite current tightness in supply, the IEA projects global oil output will grow by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and demand is expected to rise by 830,000 barrels per day, boosted by improving global economic and trade conditions. Refineries are facing higher refining margins and product cracks due to outages and EU restrictions on Russian-derived products.
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Key insights

  • 1

    Sharp decline in Russian oil exports: Russian oil exports fell by about 420,000 barrels per day in November, influenced by buyer concerns over stricter US sanctions.

  • 2

    Impact on Moscow's oil revenue: Lower exports combined with falling Urals crude prices led to Russia's oil revenues dropping to $11 billion, the lowest since early 2022.

  • 3

    US imposes tariffs on Russian oil imports: The US has added a 25% tariff on imports from India and warned other buyers to avoid Russian oil to prevent punitive trade measures.

  • 4

    Global oil supply contraction: Global oil supply decreased by 610,000 barrels per day in November, primarily due to OPEC+ cuts and disruptions in Russia and Venezuela.

  • 5

    Future supply and demand outlook: Despite recent declines, the IEA expects global oil supply to grow by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and anticipates rising demand due to improving macroeconomic conditions.

Takeaways

The sharp drop in Russian oil exports due to sanctions concerns illustrates the powerful influence of geopolitical tensions on energy markets. Although current supply has tightened and revenues have fallen, projections of rising global demand and supply growth suggest a complex and evolving landscape for the oil industry over the next several years.

Topics

World & Politics Policy & Regulation International Affairs Climate & Environment Energy Trade & Tariffs