Accountability signal shifts for Honduran elites: A US pardon for a former head of state convicted in US court reduces the deterrent value of external prosecutions for political and security actors tied to organized crime.

Pressure on environmental defenders intensifies: The decision reinforces perceptions that high-level impunity is durable, weakening confidence that attacks on land and environmental activists will be investigated and punished.

Bilateral leverage changes: US willingness to reverse a high-profile conviction alters the credibility of US conditionality tools tied to governance and human-rights performance in Honduras.