Recent African Coups Show Patterns of Copycat Behavior and Regional Dynamics

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Military coups in Africa since 2020 suggest contagion through observation, rising domestic support, and weak international pushback.
Recent African Coups Show Patterns of Copycat Behavior and Regional Dynamics
A What happened
A wave of coups across Africa since 2020 has raised questions about contagion—whether one coup increases the likelihood of others. Unlike some scholars who emphasize domestic conditions alone, recent research finds that coup plotters watch contemporaneous coups closely, using them as models when risks and potential gains align. Public opinion towards military rule has shifted positively in some nations, with military leaders gaining regional popularity by positioning themselves as anti-corruption and anti-colonial figures. International responses have been limited or inconsistent, often allowing coup leaders to legitimize and extend their rule, thus reinforcing the cycle of military takeovers across the continent.
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Key insights

  • 1

    Role of Perceived Rewards and Strategic Timing: Coups become more likely not immediately but when plotters perceive the rewards outweigh the risks and have the capacity to act, as seen in historical Free Officers movements and recent African cases.

  • 2

    Public Support as a Determinant in Coup Waves: Rising domestic approval of military intervention in governance, partly fueled by frustration with corruption and ineffective civilian rule, enhances the legitimacy and feasibility of coups.

  • 3

    International Indifference Enables Coup Longevity: Minimal or inconsistent international responses and the acceptance of coup leaders in regional bodies embolden military rulers to delay elections or consolidate power legally, encouraging further coups.

Takeaways

Africa’s recent wave of coups reflects a combination of domestic political frustrations, regional influence from successful coups, and subdued international reaction, collectively fostering an environment conducive to military takeovers.

Topics

World & Politics Policy & Regulation International Affairs Conflicts Governance Security & Defense