Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in late October, plans to dissolve parliament when the regular session opens on January 23, with Japanese media reporting a likely election date of February 8 or 15—Japan’s first winter election in 36 years. Takaichi is seeking to convert strong personal popularity (78% approval) into parliamentary gains, either padding her razor-thin majority with coalition partner Nippon Ishin no Kai or potentially restoring the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) absolute majority lost in 2024. Markets reacted positively, with the Nikkei 225 hitting a record high on expectations that a stronger mandate would ease implementation of her “proactive” fiscal agenda and higher spending. Her popularity is attributed to being Japan’s first female prime minister, a clear economic revitalization message, and early measures such as scrapping a special gasoline tax, funding energy and fuel subsidies via expedited budgeting, and planning tax cuts. She has also taken a firm stance against Chinese economic pressure while pledging support for Taiwan in a potential China-Taiwan conflict, which appears to resonate with voters. Analysts highlight two major risks: Takaichi’s popularity has not lifted the scandal-hit LDP, which remains around 30% in party approval allegations of illicit campaign funds and ties to South Korea’s Unification Church. Additionally, Japan’s two largest opposition parties announced a joint electoral vehicle—the Centrist Reform Union—combining the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and Komeito, aiming to present a centrist alternative. Komeito’s break with the LDP in October removed a long-standing vote-mobilization and seat-boosting arrangement that previously benefited the LDP.