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What happened
Indian refiners are preparing for a significant increase in Russian crude oil imports in November, driven by the impending US sanctions on Russian entities, effective November 21. In October, India imported 1.62 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian crude, a figure expected to rise as refiners expedite the landing of contracted cargoes. The increase is facilitated by quicker vessel turnarounds and front-loaded scheduling. Additionally, US crude shipments to India have surged dramatically, rising to 568,000 barrels per day in October from 207,000 in September, making the US India's fourth-largest supplier. This shift is attributed to favorable economic conditions, including a wider price difference between Brent and WTI crude, and a decrease in Chinese demand for Russian oil.
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Key insights
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1
Increased Russian Imports
Indian refiners are set to boost Russian crude imports ahead of US sanctions.
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2
Surge in US Oil Supplies
US crude shipments to India tripled in October, becoming a key supplier.
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3
Economic Factors at Play
The increase in US imports is driven by favorable pricing and market conditions.
Takeaways
The upcoming US sanctions are prompting Indian refiners to secure Russian oil supplies, while simultaneously, US crude imports are rising due to favorable economic conditions. This dual trend reflects the complexities of global oil supply chains and India's strategic energy sourcing.